The Chess Doctor Is In:
Who Can Beat Magnus?

Photo: FIDE, Eric Rosen

A great question to ponder, albeit an extraordinarily tough one to answer. Magnus Carlsen is clearly the strongest chess player on the planet at this moment in time (at least the strongest that isn’t a computer), and it would take a herculean effort for even his toughest adversaries to prevail in a match against him. I will try to answer as best as my own abilities will allow. I think it is best, before assessing the actual style needed, to take an in-depth look at the chances that today’s world elite would have against the Norwegian powerhouse.

There are many players just outside of the top ten who have lots of potential but are as of yet not quite experienced enough to pose a real threat to the crown. I’m thinking of names like Nikita Vitiugov, Vidit Gujrathi, Andrey Esipenko, etc. There are also tons of talented juniors who have reached a high level at an astonishingly young age. It can be difficult to tell whether players such as Gukesh Dommaraju (or simply Gukesh D), Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Aryan Tari, Vincent Keymer, Nodirbek Abdusattorov, etc. will later be able to make that jump to the elite level or stall out before getting there. Time will tell!

It is clear to me that Nepomniachtchi’s style was obviously not well suited to meet Carlsen. He is a very sharp, aggressive player, but the only issue with this fact is that he can be a bit impatient at times. As we saw in the match, after his loss against Carlsen in game six Nepo subsequently went on to lose three more games in a row, which certainly brought the match to an abrupt end. This lack of stability is exactly what brought on his downfall. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov would have the same issue. Both of them would feel the need to go for some sort of aggression, which Magnus could then exploit accordingly.

As far as the other top players in the world go, Alexander Grischuk, Levon Aronian, and Leinier Dominguez Perez share an unfortunate issue. They are getting on a bit in age, and while they are all sharp and could still give Magnus a good fight, they will need to make their move in the next few years or so, or else Magnus would be able to secure victory simply thanks to superior stamina, which – it should be noted – he regularly does anyway. Grischuk would also need to kick his time pressure addiction as best as possible, but that is a different story altogether.

Ding Liren and Wesley So are both very solid players, and certainly not new to the world elite, but both of them would have the same problem against Carlsen. While their careful play would make it difficult for Carlsen to win, it would also be difficult for either of them to kick in a decisive goal! And once the rapid-play tiebreaks commence, Carlsen is always the clear favorite. Both Ding and So would have to play ambitiously, and engage the World Champion in a sharp, unclear fight to prevail. I am sure that, in the years to come, both will have their chances.

Anish Giri similarly has a reputation for being solid – and sometimes even too much so. Giri’s 2016 Candidates result belies his actual fighting spirit, and his near miss in the 2020-21 edition of the same tournament shows that his handling of dynamics is also up to the task. If he can prove himself in the next Candidates tournament, I think that Giri-Carlsen would be one of the more interesting matchups.

Out of this group of top talents, two emerge very clearly as front-runners in the fight to dethrone the current World Champion, and for very different reasons. First off, there’s Fabiano Caruana who very clearly proved his strength in the 2018 World Championship match. He put up quite the fight, posting both strong defensive efforts – a must against Magnus – and sharp struggles in which either side could have come out on top, and only went under in the rapid playoff.

There were hits and misses, and certainly both players missed chances in that match, but what is clear is that if Caruana can play just as well in a future rematch, he will have every chance of taking home the crown. The only proverbial bump in the road for him has been the pandemic, which seems to have robbed him of the raw energy he exuded in 2018, which was a magical year for him. Once Fabi regains his fighting form, there is no doubt that he will be a force to reckon with!

The other very real contender is, of course, Alireza Firouzja. His track record so far is impressive: he started playing at the relatively late age of 18, and he only became a GM in 2018. Since that accomplishment he has not slowed down one bit. In November he won the FIDE Grand Swiss outright, thus qualifying for the Candidates tournament. Soon afterwards he scored 8/9 in the European Team Championship, thereby securing the 2800 rating, becoming the youngest player to reach such a high mark. It gets even better: in doing so, he broke Carlsen’s record for that task by six months! It is easy to see why the chess world is promoting him as the next World Champion.

Despite his incredible accomplishments, Firouzja still has a lot of work to do, and experience to gain, before he can confidently take on the World Champion. Bear in mind that he is still only 18 years old. One point worthy of consideration: in the aforementioned FIDE Grand Swiss, with a full point lead on the field, Firouzja lost a critical game to Caruana. While it did not end up affecting the final standings significantly, it does show that, due to his relative inexperience, Firouzja may still falter in those important, life-or-death games. I believe it will take a few years, but there is no doubt that when the time comes, Carlsen had better be wary of young Alireza.

Having broken down the strong suits and weaknesses of the most gifted chess players of today, it is time to come full circle and answer the original question: stylistically, which type of opponent would be the toughest for Carlsen to face?

A prospective challenger would need to have as strong a grasp of dynamics as Firouzja or Nepomniachtchi. They would have to possess impressive defensive abilities when, inevitably, the World Champion turns up the pressure, as Sergey Karjakin demonstrated in his failed 2016 bid for the title. They will need flawless strategic mastery, akin to that of Ding Liren or Wesley So. And they will need the ambition and wide opening knowledge that Caruana displayed in the 2018 match.

Now, slinging around names of the current best players in the world is all well and good. But the unfortunate truth is, there is no way to know who will dethrone Carlsen and when they will do it. Perhaps Firouzja can do it in the next few years, perhaps Caruana will gain a rematch with a vengeance … one could even postulate that the next World Champion is unknown to the chess world at this moment and will remain so for years to come.

Whoever the next plucky challenger may be, I advise them to proceed with caution. Magnus Carlsen will not go down without a fight. However, it is also important to add that even the very best make mistakes, and it is a universal truth that seemingly endless dominance cannot last forever.

I hope this helps answer the original question! As always, you’re welcome to submit a question of your own by clicking the button below or going to https://grandmaster2b.com/chess-doctor/