PHOTO: FIDE, Lennart Ootes
In the eyes of many, the favorite to win the recently concluded Candidates tournament seemed fairly obvious. American GM Fabiano Caruana has been the clear World #2 since 2019, and is well known for his extremely in-depth preparation and solid play. There was little doubt that he could win and qualify for a second match against World Champion Magnus Carlsen.
But that isn’t how it went. After the first half of the tournament (which you can read about here and here), Fabi was already in a tough spot. Sitting on an even score, a full point behind the joint leaders, he needed to pick up the pace. In the end (spoiler alert), he was left a full point behind eventual winner Ian Nepomniachtchi.
So where exactly did Fabiano go wrong in his quest for ultimate victory, and how could he have attempted to improve his chances?
In the beginning of the second cycle, Fabi started off with a decent win as white against his direct rival Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (MVL). He showed every sign of being in exceptional form. Strong practical prep (though, perhaps not entirely computer-sound) in MVL’s favorite Poisoned Pawn led to an extended period of thought. Was he having difficulty remembering his prep? Figuring it out over the board?
Whatever the case, the wily Frenchman found the best way to continue. After a sharp and forcing continuation, on the 26th move MVL spent two minutes on a very real mistake. Instead of equalizing seamlessly, the game reached a position where Fabi was up an exchange for two pawns. Equal material, yes, but in this concrete position black’s queenside development was lagging.
MVL had opportunities to hold, but eventually Fabiano picked off both of black’s extra pawns and was left with a full extra exchange. But the situation was not at all simple. For starters, both sides only had one pawn left (with rook vs knight), and with pawns on the same side there were always possibilities to set up a fortress.
In this game Fabiano made the decision to keep on playing, doggedly preventing MVL’s knight from reaching the critical square. Both sides made mistakes, but in the end the American was crowned victorious. A real fighting effort, and a big confidence boost for Fabi, who was now only half a point behind the leader. (You can read the full analysis of the second half of the Candidates games here and here.)
The next round was the start of Fabi’s downfall. Playing against the lowest rated player in the tournament (Kiril Alekseenko, the wildcard), it is natural to hope for a win, even as black. And as it happened, in the first half of the game (a quiet Italian where he displayed more strong preparation), Fabiano played very well, applying pressure and gradually seizing the initiative.
The 26th move was the one that decided the game. Alekseenko left a wing pawn hanging, attempting to drum up some play of his own in a passive position. Instead of taking the pawn, or even deliberating over the sacrifice and whether or not to accept it, Fabi declined the gift after a single minute. The game was subsequently drawn without much to say.
Computer analysis proves that the pawn could have been taken, leading to the question: what gives? Trusting the opponent in this way is not a good habit for any chess player, and here it cost Fabiano a well deserved half point.
Fabi’s game in the tenth round with Ding Liren was interesting, but not in a good way. Ding had a slight advantage throughout, and only with good defense from Fabiano was a half point saved. Meanwhile, Nepomniachtchi was winning his game against Alekseenko. This secured a full point lead for the Russian. Not all was lost yet, but the margin for error was becoming frighteningly slim for Caruana supporters.
The eleventh round (Nepo-Fabi) was all important. Without a question this game was a must win for Fabiano. But he saw the situation differently: his comment in the press conference was “Why should I burn my bridges?” But the Sicilian has not been refuted yet, and on this occasion I believe 1… c5 would have been the right choice. It is hard to see why he rejected the most aggressive starting move for this decisive game.
I am quite certain that Nepo would not have gone for any form of the c3 Sicilian: it is not in his style. Fabiano has played the Taimanov on occasion, and it is possible that his team has found something wrong with the opening as a whole. Even so it must be said that risking it with a slightly dubious Sicilian is better than drawing your way out of the tournament (as happened in the game after 1… e5).
This final lack of courage really put the nail in the coffin for Fabiano’s winning chances, both in the game and the event. He tried his best to create chances, but there was zero opportunity for black to play for the win. In the very next round Fabiano suffered a heavy loss to a surging Anish Giri (where he over-pressed and lost, due to the desperate tournament situation), putting an end to any lingering hopes.
In conclusion, there were a few very clear signs of deficiencies in Fabiano’s play in this event. While it’s often difficult to be critical of such an elite player, there’s still ample possibility that he will regroup and prepare effectively before the next Candidates Tournament (currently anticipated to begin sometime in February-April 2022). Certainly it would be unwise to count Fabi out quite yet!
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